Floating Experiments


The CSEP experiments consist in the prospective evaluation of probabilistic earthquake forecasting models. In these prospective experiments, the parameters of the experiment (including forecast generation, data sets, and evaluation metrics) must be defined with zero degrees of freedom before any evaluations begin.

A Floating Testing Experiment encapsulates each experiment into its own runnable environment, taking advantage of version control (i.e. git), open-data repositories (e.g. Zenodo) and Infrastructure as Code (e.g. Docker) technologies, making it reproducible, re-usable and shareable during the time scale of the evaluations.

feCSEP goals

This is an application to deploy reproducible and prospective experiments of earthquake forecasting, namely a Floating Eperiment, that can operate independent of a particular testing server. With this application, researchers, institutions and users can

  • Set up a testing experiment for your earthquake forecasts using authoritative data sources and benchmarks.

  • Encapsulate the complete experiment’s definition and rules in a couple of lines.

  • Produce human-readable results and figures.

  • Reproduce, reuse, and share forecasting experiments.


  • Pablo Iturrieta, GFZ Potsdam (pciturri@gfz-potsdam.de)

  • William Savran, UNR

  • Fabio Silva, Southern California Earthquake Center

  • Khawaja Asim, GFZ Potsdam

  • Jose Bayona, University of Bristol

  • Leila Mizrahi, ETH

  • Kirsty Bayliss, GEM

  • Francesco Serafini, University of Edinburgh

  • Marcus Hermann, University of Naples ‘Frederico II’

  • Max Werner, University of Bristol

  • Danijel Schorlemmner, GFZ Potsdam

  • Philip Maechling, Southern California Earthquake Center